Confidence in colleges and universities hits new lows, per FIRE polls

Confidence in higher education has plummeted to its lowest level ever according to the results of two new national polls commissioned by FIRE and conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. 

In two AmeriSpeak panels representative of the U.S. household population, we asked Americans: “How much confidence, if any, do you have in U.S. colleges and universities?” 

This question was first asked in February and then again in May, and its wording is similar to a question posed by Gallup in Summer 2023 when Americans were asked about their confidence in “higher education.”

Per the polls, American confidence in higher education has plummeted over the past year, reaching record lows after months of campus protests over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Congressional hearings about anti-Semitism on college campuses. 

American confidence in higher education continues to slide

On average, most Americans surveyed in FIRE’s May poll reported “some” confidence in U.S. colleges and universities (42% vs. 40% in Gallup). But compared to the 2023 Gallup poll, fewer Americans reported “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in colleges and universities (28% vs. 36% in Gallup), and more Americans reported “very little” confidence or “none at all” (30% vs. 22% in Gallup).

How does confidence in higher education compare to confidence in other institutions? According to Gallup, Americans report similar levels of confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court (27%) and banks (26%). In the extremes, though, Americans are far more confident in small businesses (65%) and the military (60%) than they are in colleges and universities. They are far less confident in Congress (8%), television news (14%), and the criminal justice system (17%). 

Predictably, Americans’ views of higher education differ along partisan lines. More than 40% of Americans who identify as politically liberal or as registered Democrats reported “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in colleges and universities in FIRE’s May poll, but such was not the case for any other subgroup. Notably, only 12% of conservatives, 12% of Republicans, and a little more than a quarter of independents (28%) reported having high confidence in colleges and universities.

Not only did American confidence in colleges and universities sink since last summer, but it also experienced pronounced drops since FIRE last asked this question four months ago. Such drops coincide with encampment protests that emerged across the country in April and May. 

Strikingly, some of the largest drops in confidence in higher education are within subgroups: among Americans ages 18-34, Democrats, and women. The amount of confidence conservatives, Republicans, and Americans with only a high school education or less have in colleges and universities is approaching a floor — very few respondents in these groups have high confidence, so there’s not much room for high confidence to drop further. 

As such, the current dip in confidence in colleges and universities is largely driven by groups that previously had quite a lot of confidence in higher education. Americans ages 18-34 with “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence dropped from 42% to 22% since last summer. For Democrats the drop was from 59% to 42%, and for women, from 39% to 29%. These groups appear to be playing catch-up in ways that do not bode well for colleges and universities. 

Confidence drops further after encampment protests

Not only did American confidence in colleges and universities sink since last summer, but it also experienced pronounced drops since FIRE last asked this question four months ago. Such drops coincide with encampment protests that emerged across the country in April and May. 

In our February poll of 1,122 Americans, 31% reported having “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in colleges and universities, whereas 28% of the 1,309 Americans polled in May reported the same. While the percentage of those who reported “very little” confidence or “none at all” remained constant at 30%, there was a slight tick up in those who reported “none at all” from 7% in February to 10% in May.

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Indeed, since February, nearly every major subgroup — even political liberals and registered Democrats — experienced declines in the percent who reported “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence. Notably, in May no subgroup contained a majority that reported high levels of confidence. 

Compared to the February poll, in the May poll, the largest drops within subgroups occurred among Americans ages 18-34, registered Democrats, Americans with a college degree, registered Republicans, white Americans, and women. 

Though our data don’t allow us to determine precisely what caused the drops between February and May, we know that throughout much of April and May encampment protests at more than 100 colleges and universities made headlines. Further, campuses with encampments and encampment-related arrests were also predominantly campuses with poor speech climates. (FIRE plans to release more polling results from the May survey next week, which will reveal more about how Americans felt about the campus encampments.)

Thus, it’s likely the encampments or colleges’ responses to them negatively impacted public confidence in higher education. 

Low confidence will only hurt colleges and universities

American confidence in colleges and universities has sunk to new lows. This corresponds to low levels of trust in science and scientists and an increase in the perception that colleges and universities have a negative effect on the country. 

While the present data fall short of illuminating the “why” behind big-picture and long-term trends in sinking levels of confidence, some have speculated that increased ideological homogeneity and perceptions of higher education as biased against individuals not on the political left may account for this trend. That, coupled with rising costs of higher education, administrative bloat, taking sides on controversial political issues, and increased conflict and tension on campuses, may be giving rise to untenable levels of distrust and lost confidence. 

The present low levels of confidence could have negative consequences on the financial bottom-line for colleges and universities, particularly in conservative and Republican-controlled states, and in the context of the impending enrollment cliff. 

Such swift and substantial declines in confidence may also serve as a warning sign to universities in the wake of their handling of recent campus protests.

As colleges and universities nationwide continue to experience controversy, there remains a pressing need to know what Americans think about these institutions. FIRE will continue conducting polls that illuminate answers to this question.